Ran across a lineup analysis tool on the Baseball Musings site.
Let’s try nine Perfectos…
There are two models: one with data from 1998-2002, the other with data from 1959-2004. I used pitcher hitting data from a post on Fungoes, and 2007 MLB results for the rest.
Here’s the highest rated lineup with the 1998-2002 data:
1 Utley 2 Howard 3 Ludwick 4 Blalock 5 Rowand 6 Castro 7 Rollins 8 Pitcher 9 Burrell
Interesting that the pitcher is in the 8 spot, which is something I’ve actually done quite a bit so far. Howard in the 2 spot is a bit perplexing, and Burrell down at 9 is a shock. I guess his high OBP goes along with the 8-spot pitcher, in that he acts as an extra lead-off hitter. Here’s the complete data.
Here’s the highest rated lineup with the 1959-2004 data:
1 Burrell 2 Utley 3 Rollins 4 Howard 5 Blalock 6 Ludwick 7 Rowand 8 Castro 9 Pitcher
This one looks more normal, with the pitcher batting 9th, the two high-OBP guys at the top, and Howard batting clean-up. But Rollins looks out of place in the 3 spot. Here’s the complete output.
Lead-off hitter Rollins does not appear near the top of the order, in fact the 1998-2002 model rates him as the worst lead-off hitter! Of course, this model does not take speed into account. On the other hand, I’ve read that speed is more important in the middle of the line-up, where the lighter hitters need more help in getting runners home.
Both of the top lineups put the three lefties (Howard, Utley, & Blalock) in a sequence of four batters, which is not great. The best 1998-2002 lineup that keeps the lefties separated (at a cost of 0.012 runs per game!) is:
1 Utley 2 Rowand 3 Ludwick 4 Castro 5 Howard 6 Rollins 7 Blalock 8 Pitcher 9 Burrell
The difference between the best and worst lineups (1998-2002) translates to 0.573 runs per game, which is a lot. (6.196 vs. 5.596 runs per game) The worst lineup is:
1 Rollins 2 Pitcher 3 Blalock 4 Rowand 5 Ludwick 6 Burrell 7 Howard 8 Utley 9 Castro
Now let’s try separate lineups facing RHP/LHP.
Here’s the best lineup against RHP, 1998-2002 model, 6.425 runs/game:
1 Howard 2 Utley 3 Rowand 4 Blalock 5 Ludwick 6 Castro 7 Rollins 8 Pitcher 9 Burrell
Complete output for 1998-2002 (above) and 1959-2004.
Here’s the best lineup against LHP, 1998-2002 model, 6.475 runs/game:
1 Werth 2 Burrell 3 Blalock 4 Rowand 5 Utley 6 Howard 7 Rollins 8 Pitcher 9 Coste