home-field advantage

One thing caught my eye in the Curve Ball book: batters playing at home hit 12 points better than on the road. Makes sense, but it’s almost as big as the lefty/righty match-up difference, which they say is 15 points. And yet, AFAIK, there are no adjustments in TPB to take home-field advantage into account.

A quick run of the Retrosheet game logs proves the home-field advantage for wins & losses:

              HOME WINS       ROAD WINS
            --------------  --------------
1960-1969    8603 (54.03%)   7319 (45.97%)
1970-1979   10644 (53.78%)   9149 (46.22%)
1980-1989   10995 (54.12%)   9320 (45.88%)
1990-1999   11554 (53.52%)  10033 (46.48%)
2000-2006    9166 (53.93%)   7831 (46.07%)

1960-2006   50962 (53.86%)  43652 (46.14%)

It’s almost 8 points. Not as large as 12, but, of course, there’s more to winning than hitting!

2007-10-07: The Commish’s comment re capturing home-field advantage in Park Effects is very interesting. I might even replace the LHB/RHB categories with home/visitor.

3 thoughts on “home-field advantage”

  1. “And yet, AFAIK, there are no adjustments in TPB to take home-field advantage into account.”

    Ummm…I guess on this surface this comment could be true. The cards are designed to reproduce the season stats. The cards are also adjusted greatly by where certain players play their home games in attempt to achieve those numbers.

    For Example: Batter A hits 50 homers and plays in a pitchers ball park. While Batter B hits 50 homers and plays in a hitters ball park. TPB will give Batter A a bigger home run range on his card vs. Batter B in an attempt to reproduce the numbers.

    More on the interaction between ball parks and players and how it all relates with the game engine can be found on this thread in the TPB Forum.

    http://forums.delphiforums.com/tpbaseball/messages?msg=138.1

    I think after reading this…there could be case given the home field advantage is built in the cards some. I know it to be the case in the ABL, if you build a power team and play in a pitcher’s park, your success rate is suspect.

    Commish

  2. Another comment after thinking some more about home field advantage in TPB…

    I personally don’t like the Ball park Effect Chart….

    I was thinking about a rule proposal that would basically elminate the Ball Park Effect Chart…all rolls there become automatic foul balls.

    But if you wanted you could add a home field twist….

    Home team is given a 1b gcf
    Away team is given a K

    Simple and more importantly no more home runs off the ball park effects chart. I feel the batter’s homer range and the pitcher’s deep1 range and then if a deep the park’s distance numbers if a homer should be possible….

    Commish

  3. Thinking more about my Ball Park Effects Chart with home field twist…

    Maybe a K is too harsh for the visitor.

    Another twist….

    Away Team: EF-CF
    Home Team: 1B gcf if the batter has a “Clutch Rating of T” otherwise EF-CF

    or just simply

    Away Team: EF-CF
    Home Team: 1B gcf

    or even

    Away Team: 1b gcf if .300 hitter vs. pitcher(L/R) otherwise EF-CF
    Home Team: 1B gcf if .250 hitter vs. pitcher(L/R)
    Note: All Pitcher’s Batting result is K

    Again no extra rolls….

    O.K. It’s almost NYY Game 2 playoff time…

    Commish

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