{"id":168,"date":"2008-03-25T18:44:08","date_gmt":"2008-03-26T01:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/?p=168"},"modified":"2008-03-26T17:06:56","modified_gmt":"2008-03-27T00:06:56","slug":"lineup-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/?p=168","title":{"rendered":"Lineup Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ran across a lineup analysis tool<\/a> on the Baseball Musings site<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Let’s try nine Perfectos… <\/p>\n

There are two models: one with data from 1998-2002, the other with data from 1959-2004. I used pitcher hitting data from a post on Fungoes<\/a>, and 2007 MLB results for the rest.<\/p>\n

Here’s the highest rated lineup with the 1998-2002 data:<\/p>\n

\r\n1 Utley\t\r\n2 Howard\r\n3 Ludwick\r\n4 Blalock\r\n5 Rowand\r\n6 Castro\r\n7 Rollins\r\n8 Pitcher\r\n9 Burrell\r\n<\/pre>\n
Interesting that the pitcher is in the 8 spot, which is something I’ve actually done quite a bit so far. Howard in the 2 spot is a bit perplexing, and Burrell down at 9 is a shock. I guess his high OBP goes along with the 8-spot pitcher, in that he acts as an extra lead-off hitter. Here’s the complete data.<\/a><\/p>\n
Here’s the highest rated lineup with the 1959-2004 data:<\/p>\n
\r\n1 Burrell\r\n2 Utley\r\n3 Rollins\r\n4 Howard\r\n5 Blalock\r\n6 Ludwick\r\n7 Rowand\r\n8 Castro\r\n9 Pitcher\r\n<\/pre>\n
This one looks more normal, with the pitcher batting 9th, the two high-OBP guys at the top, and Howard batting clean-up. But Rollins looks out of place in the 3 spot. Here’s the complete output.<\/a> <\/p>\n
Lead-off hitter Rollins does not appear near the top of the order, in fact the 1998-2002 model rates him as the worst<\/i> lead-off hitter! Of course, this model does not take speed into account. On the other hand, I’ve read that speed is more important in the middle of the line-up, where the lighter hitters need more help in getting runners home.<\/p>\n
Both of the top lineups put the three lefties (Howard, Utley, & Blalock) in a sequence of four batters, which is not great. The best 1998-2002 lineup that keeps the lefties separated (at a cost of 0.012 runs per game!) is:<\/p>\n
\r\n1 Utley\r\n2 Rowand\r\n3 Ludwick\r\n4 Castro\r\n5 Howard\r\n6 Rollins\r\n7 Blalock\r\n8 Pitcher\r\n9 Burrell\r\n<\/pre>\n
The difference between the best and worst lineups (1998-2002) translates to 0.573 runs per game, which is a lot. (6.196 vs. 5.596 runs per game) The worst lineup is:<\/p>\n
\r\n1 Rollins\r\n2 Pitcher\r\n3 Blalock\r\n4 Rowand\r\n5 Ludwick\r\n6 Burrell\r\n7 Howard\r\n8 Utley\r\n9 Castro\r\n<\/pre>\n
Now let’s try separate lineups facing RHP\/LHP.<\/p>\n
Here’s the best lineup against RHP, 1998-2002 model, 6.425 runs\/game:<\/p>\n
\r\n1 Howard\r\n2 Utley\r\n3 Rowand\r\n4 Blalock\r\n5 Ludwick\r\n6 Castro\r\n7 Rollins\r\n8 Pitcher\r\n9 Burrell\r\n<\/pre>\n
Complete output for 1998-2002 (above)<\/a> and 1959-2004<\/a>.<\/p>\n
Here’s the best lineup against LHP, 1998-2002 model, 6.475 runs\/game:<\/p>\n
\r\n1 Werth\r\n2 Burrell\r\n3 Blalock\r\n4 Rowand\r\n5 Utley\r\n6 Howard\r\n7 Rollins\r\n8 Pitcher\r\n9 Coste\r\n<\/pre>\n
Complete output for 1998-2002<\/a> and 1959-2004<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ran across a lineup analysis tool on the Baseball Musings site. Let’s try nine Perfectos…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-abl"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}