For the ABL draft & season I’ll develop some ratings based on the card ranges. The batter’s card is pretty straightforward. The ranges can be used to directly compute things like OBP & Slugging that are independent of pitcher-card rolls. The one vital correction, however, is the power, which will determine how many HR result from Deep! rolls. So, I need to get a handle on how power affects those probabilities. Later, I can make calculations based on Deep! ranges, either averages or against particular pitchers.<\/p>\n
I wrote a “Deep Engine” that captures the location and distance data and allows me to run some Monte Carlo simulations. For now I’m going to ignore robbed HRs, which is a pretty small effect. For the first calculation I’ll assume a random distribution of pull types (Lsp, Lp, Rsp, Rp) and use all the 2006 parks. (Later I should whittle it down to the 2007 parks in the ABL.) I ran ten million trials for each power rating and came up with the following probabilities.<\/p>\n
\r\n power: 5 4 3 2 1\r\n\r\n home run: 48.61% 32.40% 19.17% 9.27% 3.11%\r\n caught: 47.51% 63.71% 76.93% 86.82% 92.98%\r\n foul: 3.89% 3.89% 3.89% 3.91% 3.91%\r\n<\/pre>\nSo a power-5 guy has about a 50% chance of hitting it out on a Deep! The average power-1 batter is more likely to send it foul than over the fence fair.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
For the ABL draft & season I’ll develop some ratings based on the card ranges. The batter’s card is pretty straightforward. The ranges can be used to directly compute things like OBP & Slugging that are independent of pitcher-card rolls. The one vital correction, however, is the power, which will determine how many HR result … Continue reading Deep Engine 1<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-abl","category-triple-play-baseball"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mfooz.com\/bblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}