The ABL simplifies runner advancement on singles. I think the only way to go from first to third on a single is on a hit-and-run. This made me wonder about how often runners advance past second on a single. Here’s what I got from the Retrosheet event files for 2006. (single_first.pl) These are singles with a man on first and no other base runners. Advancement on fielding errors counts, but getting thrown out doesn’t.
first to second 4101 (73.5%) first to third 1473 (26.4%) first to home 8 ( 0.1%)
About a one-in-four chance to move the man to third. That sounds about right.
Here are the numbers from 1973:
first to second 3270 (68.9%) first to third 1468 (30.9%) first to home 10 ( 0.2%)
Why did more guys go from first to third back then?