single with man on first

The ABL simplifies runner advancement on singles. I think the only way to go from first to third on a single is on a hit-and-run. This made me wonder about how often runners advance past second on a single. Here’s what I got from the Retrosheet event files for 2006. ( These are singles with a man on first and no other base runners. Advancement on fielding errors counts, but getting thrown out doesn’t.

first to second    4101   (73.5%)
first to third     1473   (26.4%)
first to home         8   ( 0.1%)

About a one-in-four chance to move the man to third. That sounds about right.

Here are the numbers from 1973:

first to second    3270   (68.9%)
first to third     1468   (30.9%)
first to home        10   ( 0.2%)

Why did more guys go from first to third back then?

One thought on “single with man on first”

  1. “Why did more guys go from first to third back then?”

    My guess is a change in how today’s game is played. Today teams are more likely to play station to station and wait for the big three run homer. I think this is true even in the National League.

    As for the rules in the ABL…maybe a change where the really fast guys get a chance to advance to 3rd without the hit and run. Then as with any change…the balance between realism and playability comes into play.


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