ABL at the All Star Break: Pythagorean winning percentage

The Pythagorean winning percentage is a measure developed by Bill James to estimate a team’s winning percentage based on runs scored and runs against. (It was named after Pythagoras, the famed Greek Sabermatrician.)

At the half-way point of the ABL regular season, the Pythagorean winning percentages are listed below. (I used the 1.83 exponent used by Baseball Reference.) The results are sorted by Pythagorean wins, the number of wins expected based on the runs scored and runs against.


The difference between the actual wins and the Pythagorean wins is a measure of how “lucky” a team was. It indicates the teams that scored their runs in the situations that won games. And the teams that didn’t. Sorted by Pythagorean win difference, the table below shows the lucky teams at the top and the unlucky ones at the bottom.


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