Home-field advantage and Park Effects

Following up on the previous post about home-field advantage, I got the MLB batting splits for the last five years from BR.com, which are summarized in the table below. (Here are the 2007 splits.)

hv-splits.png

The biggest effect is that the home team strikes out less. The next largest is more walks for the home team. To capture these effects, we need at least 12 rolls, which is an almost perfect fit into the 16 Park Effects rolls, something suggested by the Commish. A possible Park Effects replacement chart appears below. Since the Park Effects range is identical for every batter, we can eliminate the second roll and simply read the result from the original roll that landed us on Park Effects.

pe1.png

I worked in a couple of things that don’t otherwise tend to happen in the ABL: infield pop outs (pointed out by cnc14) and extra advancement on hits.

One could argue that the home team should have a few SF rolls to account for the extra sac-fly production.

This chart would produce a little more offense. A quick calculation shows that a Park Effects roll on this new chart would yield an average of 0.6 bases per roll, whereas the TBP chart yields only about 0.3 bases per Park Effects roll.

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