Post-Draft Power Rankings

The rating system is based on the run value of a player at a particular position, relative to a replacement player. Replacement-player values are based on post-draft free agents at each position. The scale is set to zero for replacement players and 100 for an arbitrary “superstar” level. Run values are adjusted to expected game participation of regular position players, starters, and relievers. Run values do not take into account the following ratings: injury, jump, steal, speed, hold, catcher throw, outfield throw, and double-play turn. Run values are based on an average of all current ABL parks.

Team power rankings are calculated by adding the run values of 19 players on each team:

  • 8 position players chosen for maximum value as a group (Platoons are not considered.)
  • 2 additional position players, which represent DH and bench strength
  • 5 most valuable starters
  • 4 most valuable relievers

The post-draft power rankings are depicted in the chart below.

Syracuse has the strongest position players, Orlando has the weakest. La Jolla has the strongest starting rotation, Ocracoke has the weakest. Chesapeake Bay has the strongest bullpen, Mudville has the weakest.

The power rankings are a simple measurement of team strength and may not accurately predict win/loss records.

2017 ABL Draft: Titusville Picks

The most significant feature of this year’s draft was the lack of starting pitching. Relief pitching was good at the top, but poor in the middle. Batters in the draft pool were stronger than normal. Titusville’s picks went very much according to plan for the first five rounds or so, before the normal confusion set in.

ROUND/OVERALL    PLAYER              POSITION
    1/  6        Steven Wright       starter
    2/ 16        Kevin Kiermaier     CF
    3/ 26        Tyler Thornburg     reliever
    4/ 36        Evan Longoria       3B
    5/ 46        Ervin Santana       starter
    6/ 56        Miguel Gonzalez     starter
    7/ 65        Adam Rosales        IF
    8/ 74        Michael Lorenzen    reliever
    9/ 84        George Kontos       reliever
   10/ 93        Jett Bandy          C
   11/102        Curtis Granderson   OF
   12/111        Matt Holliday       1B/LF
   13/120        Fernando Abad       LH reliever
   14/129        Domingo Santana     OF
   15/138        Jackie Bradley      CF
   16/146        Jake Barrett        reliever

2015 ABL Draft: Titusville Picks

I expect to go from first to worst this season, as there wasn’t a good return from last year’s championship squad. In fact, I kept only 13, so had two extra picks, including the last of the entire draft. The strategy was to invest in young position players that might take major strides in 2015. Pitching was relegated to the later rounds. I was hoping to snag Starlin Castro and Mookie Betts, but LBI was clever enough to pounce before me.

ROUND/OVERALL    PLAYER             POSITION
    1/ 10        Carlos Gomez       CF
    2/ 21        Marcell Ozuna      OF
    3/ 32        Ian Desmond        SS
    4/ 41        Travis d’Arnaud    C
    6/ 61        Tyson Ross           SP
    7/ 71        Rougned Odor       2B
    8/ 81        Eduardo Escobar    IF
    9/ 91        Oswaldo Arcia      RF
   10/101        Casey Fien           RP
   11/111        Danny Salazar        SP
   12/121        Scott Atchison       RP
   13/131        Dustin Ackley      LF
   14/141        Yovani Gallardo      SP
   15/151        Jonathan Broxton     RP
   16/161        Jared Hughes         RP
   17/171        David Buchanan       SP
   18/181        Justin Wilson        RP

Goodbye R, Hello L

During the 2014 ABL season everyone noticed the increase in pitcher cards with the R symbol. I wrote about it in
the 2014 ABL Yearbook. Now that my 2015 card data is in the computer, it’s a good opportunity to see if the Rs are still as numerous. I did a simple count of the pitchers in recent seasons that have each symbol. Starters and relievers are all grouped together. The data is from only the pitchers with ABL eligibility; not all Triple Play cards are represented. I don’t think I’ve missed too many eligible players over the last few seasons, but the first couple of seasons considered here are probably missing a few, especially for the 2008 season. The years listed refer to the ABL season, so the 2015 data is from the 2014 Triple Play cards that we’ll be using in the upcoming 2015 ABL season. OK, enough of the fine-print bullshit, let’s go to the graphs.

sym_homerun

Well, it looks like 2014 was a blip for the R symbol. The frequency has dropped down to the previous level.

The H symbol continues to occur infrequently. (To the relief of all ABL managers!) It’s interesting that the level of the H symbol seems to follow that of the R from year to year. I didn’t notice that before, probably because the yearbook study weighted the symbols by how many innings were pitched in the ABL, and nobody likes to give an H pitcher a lot of innings. In 2014, when the R frequency doubled, the H frequency doubled too, from 4.5% to 9.5%! In 2015 it’s back down to 4.5%.

sym_walk

The L symbol is back with a vengeance! Lots of shorts have the L this year, and it looks like every single qualified closer has one. In the yearbook I speculated that the combination of B & L might be constant. It sure doesn’t look like that in 2015. This season should see more walks than ever before erased from batter cards, because the frequency of Bs is up too.

sym_single

And finally, the F symbol (found on relievers’ cards only) has not fluctuated much over the years.

In summary, compared to last season, expect fewer homers & deeps to be re-rolled, and expect to lose more walks off the batters card.

R & H Symbols

A few guys have mentioned that there are a lot more R symbols out there this season. Commish & I were talking about it and speculated about how the symbols are calculated. I guessed that the R & H symbols depend solely on how many home runs a pitcher gave up with runners on base relative to the total number of homers he surrendered.

I collected some stats from Baseball Reference to see how they compared to the symbols. I initially selected the 43 starters currently on the ABL active rosters. I later added some H-symbol starters from Taxi Teams and the free-agent pool, because the H symbols were underrepresented. I didn’t look at any relievers, but I don’t expect they would have rules different from the starters. I looked at the 2013 MLB stats and the TPB cards we’re using for the 2014 ABL season. In B-R you can find the relevant stats under the “Splits” menu in the “Standard Pitching” section on the particular pitcher’s page. Scroll down to the “Bases Occupied” table. Strasburg’s stats are shown below: 7 homers with the bases empty, 9 with runners on.

rh1

I noticed some patterns and figured out an easy rule that predicted all the actual symbols. It’s best understood by looking at the grid shown below. There are two measurements that figure in. The first is the number of homers hit with runners on base divided by the total number of homers. Call this HRonbase. My initial thought was that the symbols would depend on this number only. The average value of this measurement in my sample is 40%. The second measurement is the overall home-run rate: the total number of homers surrendered divided by the batters faced. Call this one HRt. The average value in my sample is 2.2%. So here’s the table showing how the combination of these measurements determines the symbol:

rh2

When the overall home-run rate is greater than 2%, the symbols act like I expected them to. If the percentage of home runs with runners on is large, the guy gets an H. If that percentage is small, he gets an R. But it’s a different story when the overall home-run rate is less than 2%. In that case, it doesn’t matter what the stats are for on-base and bases empty; the guy gets an R, period. The clearest example is Henderson Alvarez, who had guys on base every time a home run was hit against him. But that was only two homers in 418 plate appearances, a very low rate of 0.48%. That low rate earned him an R, despite the fact that he gave up zero solo shots.

So it’s obvious that the R symbol is used to reduce the number of homers from the batter’s card when the pitcher gives up fewer than average home runs in general. With power becoming scarcer recently, it’s not surprising that more Rs are required. On the other hand, although there were 273 fewer home runs in 2013 compared to 2012 (as Commish pointed out), there were even fewer in 2011.

I wondered why the overall homer rate couldn’t instead be handled via the Deep ranges. I think the answer is that if you lose the Deeps, then you lose the park variation that forms such an important part of the game. If a guy has no Deep ranges (and there are some, of course), then it doesn’t matter what park he’s pitching in or what Power the batter has (except for the Deeps from Park Effects, of course).

So, my conclusion is that the R & H symbols are based more on the overall home-run rate of the pitcher, and not so much on the state of the bases when the home runs were hit.

Outfielder Errors

In Strat-O-Matic, outfielder errors result in the batter reaching second or third. What kind of errors do outfielders really make?

I looked at the 2,386 errors made in MLB 2005-2009. (From Retrosheet, natch.) That’s about one every five games. I divided them into the five categories shown in the chart below.

outfield_errors_pie.png

Only a quarter involve the batter reaching base on the error. The majority involve advancement of other baserunners, most after a hit.

A little more detail in the table below, which shows how many bases the batter advanced on the error.

outfield_errors_table.png

An error that allows the batter to go to second on a single is, by far, the most common occurrence. The table hides a lot of detail, though, like the base situation and the advancement of those other runners.

APBA: back to basics

I started out with APBA back in ’74, but have played only a handful of games in the last 25 years. I’ve been trying out a few different TTBB games over the last year, and the other week I started thinking about APBA again. After losing an eBay auction for an 80s edition, I ordered a new copy, curious about how the charts & cards have changed since the old days.

Continue reading APBA: back to basics

Ads from 1973-1974

I recently acquired some old baseball mags from the time I started following the game. The 1974 Street & Smith’s yearbook was a particularly important specimen, as it was there I first saw anything about tabletop baseball. The APBA ad must have grabbed my imagination more than the others, because I sent away for their free brochure and sample cards, and soon afterwards ordered the game.

Looking back from 2008, I’m surprised at how many games were advertising. Who runs print ads nowadays?

My favorite bit is in the APBA ad from another energy crunch 35 years ago:

Street & Smith’s 1974 Yearbook:

June 1973 Baseball Digest:

Baseball board games at the HOF

Century of baseball board games to open April 12

Exhibit features collection of 100 years of leisure entertainment, 1860s-1960s

National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum

COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — For anyone who’s ever said, “baseball is just a game,” a collection of baseball board games, soon to be featured in a temporary exhibit at the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, N.Y., will show that the passion for the national pastime has deep origins and strong roots as a leisure-time activity in American culture, featuring more than 50 games over a 100-year period from 1860-1960.

link